Denise Wambsganss
Realtor Your Castle Real Estate

Wednesday, June 27, 2012

Important News Release –

The Denver Post printed inaccurate information

– Please read below for ACCURATE information

concerning Colorado Real Estate. -

Last Wednesday, the Denver Post printed an article called “Colorado Could Be Facing a New Wave of Foreclosures” suggesting there may be a surge of shadow inventory coming to our market in the near future. Based upon in-depth analysis, done by the company I work for, Your Castle Real Estate, of the hard data we performed to quantify the so-called shadow inventory and assess its potential affect on our market, we believe their conclusion is both misleading and incorrect and as such does a disservice to home buyers and sellers in the metro Denver area. Below is a synopsis of our analysis.


First, let’s define Shadow Inventory so we’re all playing on the same field. We define it as the number of properties that are either REO or 90+ days late on their mortgage in a given area.

If the inventory is REO, that troubled property could be:

· Actively on the market, available for purchase today 
     On the market, but under contract 
Not actively on the market, a part of the shadow inventory that has to be sold eventually
If it is a consumer-owned property, the property could be:
·         Actively on the market, available for purchase (as a short sale or regular sale)

·         Under contract or pending bank approval or short sale terms

·         Not on the market – but likely to get a loan modification

·         Not on the market – but likely to be sold as a regular ale or short sale soon, in an orderly way

·         Not on the market – the owner is in denial, and the home will eventually become a foreclosure.  This is still part of the Shadow inventory that may hit the market someday.

The metro Denver area does not have a large Shadow Inventory based on three key data points:

1. According to NAR, Denver has had the highest average home appreciation gain of any of the 30 largest cities in the U.S. in the past 3 years, at $29,900. The average gain (loss, actually) of the largest 30 cities is -$18,400. Just for kicks, the worst performing city is Las Vegas, at -$59,900.

2. Because Denver’s home prices didn’t appreciate as much during the bubble and began the correction before most markets, Denver has already processed the majority of its REO inventory. According to NAR, metro Denver has only 9,740 homes currently owned by banks. Only San Antonio and Kansas City have smaller REO inventories. Miami has the largest REO inventory with 159,000 properties.

3. Denver has the second fewest number of 90+ days late residential mortgages of the top 30 cities in the country at 29,000, again according to NAR. Chicago has 284,000 and Miami has 124,000 90+ days late mortgages respectively.

Our contention is that while there certainly is Shadow Inventory in our market, there is no Shadow Inventory PROBLEM. Why? Because we have relatively very little Shadow Inventory in our market, and even on the extremely slim chance that a large portion of that inventory suddenly and magically descended on the market in a short period of time, we currently have such a low level of inventory it would actually help our market not hurt it! Five years ago when we had 27,000 properties on the market a huge influx of inventory would indeed have been a problem. Today, with an inventory of only 10,000 properties a dump of 8,000 more properties on the market would only get us back to 2010 inventory levels. In fact, we need this inventory to sell!

So if you just read the Denver Post or the Wall St. Journal and don’t want to buy now because of the Shadow Inventory menace, I’d like to explain that while this may be a problem in other parts of the country, it’s not a problem for us. Our Shadow Inventory problem is pure fiction!

The reason I have chosen to work for Your Castle Real Estate is because of the massive amount of analysis and trend information that the owner, Lon Welsh, does for his Real Estate Agents, making sure we know how to accurately work with our Buyers and sellers !!! There is no other company in the Metro area that has more accurate information for buyers and sellers and I think the article from the Denver Post is a great example of inaccurate information going out to the public.

 If you have any questions concerning Colorado Real Estate please feel free to contact me:  Denise Wambsganss – Realtor – Your Castle Real Estate

Wednesday, June 6, 2012

Denver Rated as the THIRD –BEST Performing City
for housing of the major metropolitan areas
by Case-Shiller

Week on
Case-Shiller Ranks Denver Third The closely watched Case-Shiller index released today shows that in March the Denver-area housing market was the third-best performing city of the major metropolitan areas it tracks. Denver also boasted its biggest percentage increase in almost two years. Denver showed a 2.6 percent year-over-year gain in March, compared with a 2.6 percent decline for the 20 metropolitan statistical areas tracked in the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices.

Luxury Market Bounces Back in May The luxury housing market in the Denver area bounced back in May, with 50 sales of $1 million or more, a 31.6 percent jump from May 2011, according to a report by the Kentwood Real Estate Co. The dollar volume last month showed a similar percentage increase, hitting $71.5 million from $54.4 million in May 2011. The most expensive home sold last month fetched $3.6 million, 18 percent higher than the most expensive home in May 2011, which sold for $3.05 million.

  New Home Numbers Low, But Percentage Gains Huge Home building in the Denver area rose by 43.4 percent in the first four months of the year, compared to the same period in 2011, according to a report released today. An increase in building permits for single-family, detached homes is a trend for more than a year, said Jeff Whiton, President and CEO of the Home Builders Association of Metro Denver, which released the building permit report.

  CHFA Unveils Tax Credit Program In celebration of National Homeownership Month, CHFA has launched a new program to help Colorado's first-time homebuyers save up to $2,000 annually on their federal income taxes. The program, called CHFA SmartStep, combines CHFA's most affordable 30-year fixed rate mortgage with a Mortgage Credit Certificate and optional down payment assistance.

Home Prices Break $300,000 June 4th, 2012 The Denver-area housing market was hot in May. The number of previously owned homes and closings rose by almost 24 percent from May 2011, while the average price of a single-family home closed last month topped $300,000 for the first time since 2007, shows a report released today It is a GREAT time to buy or Sale a home in Metro Denver. For specific statistics and information about YOUR neighborhood or home give me a call or email me. Denise Wambsganss – Realtor- Your Castle Real Estate 303-880-8771