Denise Wambsganss
Realtor Your Castle Real Estate

Monday, April 26, 2010

Shadow Market in Denver (Real Estate)

Hello Everyone: Below is an overview from a person in the company I work for... Your Castle Real Estate concerning the "Shadow market" in Denver, Colorado. Note: This is only estimate of what will happen with the Housing market in Denver market, However, he is usually pretty much right on.

In today’s Wall Street Journal there is an article (copied below) about the size of the shadow foreclosure market. This economist pegs it at 1.1 million homes. The Denver metro area is about 0.8% of the overall US population, so as a really rough guess, we would have 8,800 of those homes. That’s only a rough guess of course.

We sold 38,100 DSF + 11,600 CND in 2005 (total = 49,700 resale homes, not counting new construction). This declined to 29,100 DSF + 8,230 CND = 37,339 resale units sold in 2009. In the unlikely event the shadow market homes were dumped on MLS tomorrow morning, we could sell what we sold in 2009 AND all of the shadow homes and still be under the sales volume in 2005!

Here’s another, more realistic way to look at it. Most of the shadow homes will likely under the median sales price. That’s $210K for DSF and about $165K for CND. For this least-expensive half of the market, we have 2.3 months of inventory for DSF (six months is normal) and 4.3 MOI for condos. Blended, it’s 2.9 MOI, a pretty strong seller’s market. If you dumped all 8,800 shadow units on the market tomorrow, we’d increase to 8.7 months of inventory. That is a slight buyers market. More likely, the shadow market will be trickled slowly onto the MLS over months, if not years.

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